Renewal Forecast Calculator

The Renewal Forecast Calculator estimates how much of your contract value coming up for renewal you can expect to keep, and how much is at risk, so you can plan the period ahead with confidence. You enter the total value up for renewal and your expected renewal rate, and the tool multiplies the two to give the forecast renewed value, then subtracts that from the total to show the at-risk amount you could lose if those renewals do not land. Finance teams, customer success leaders and founders use this to build revenue forecasts, to set retention targets, and to decide where to focus renewal effort, since the at-risk figure points straight to the value worth protecting. Because recurring revenue compounds, even a modest lift in the expected rate can move the forecast meaningfully, which makes this a useful planning and scenario tool as much as a forecast. To get a credible number, base your expected renewal rate on your actual history rather than optimism, ideally using a value based renewal rate so partial renewals and downgrades are captured, and include only the contract value genuinely due in the period. It helps to run a few scenarios, a conservative and an optimistic rate, so you can see the range and plan for the downside rather than a single point. Track the forecast against actual renewals as the period closes to sharpen your expected rate over time. Pair it with your renewal and downgrade rates for a fuller view of how value moves through your base. Used this way, the calculator turns renewal season from guesswork into a clear forecast you can budget around, share with your board, and act on while there is still time to save the revenue at risk.

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$225,000
Forecast renewed value
At-risk value$25,000

Forecast renewed = value up for renewal x expected renewal rate. At-risk = value - forecast. Estimate only, not financial or tax advice.

How it works

The tool multiplies the value up for renewal by your expected renewal rate to forecast the value you will keep. The at-risk amount is the value up for renewal minus the forecast renewed value. A higher expected rate lifts the forecast and lowers the at-risk amount.

Worked example

With $250,000 up for renewal and an expected renewal rate of 90 percent, the forecast renewed value is $250,000 x 0.90, which is $225,000. The at-risk value is $250,000 minus $225,000, which is $25,000.

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Frequently asked questions

What expected renewal rate should I use?

Use your actual historical renewal rate as a starting point, ideally measured by value so partial renewals are captured. Adjust for anything you know about the coming period, such as a price change. Avoid optimistic guesses that inflate the forecast.

What does the at-risk amount mean?

It is the value up for renewal that your expected rate suggests will not renew. It points to the revenue worth protecting with focused effort. Reducing it is the goal of your renewal and retention work.

Should I forecast by value or by count?

Forecasting by value gives a dollar figure you can budget around and captures downgrades that a simple count misses. If you only have a count based rate you can still apply it, but value is more useful for planning. Keep your inputs consistent.