Currency is the exposure New Zealand investors are least likely to have measured and most likely to have misjudged, because the single most intuitive assumption about it is wrong. Buying a fund priced in New Zealand dollars does not give you a New Zealand dollar asset. The unit price is quoted in one currency and the shares underneath it are denominated in another, and it is the second one that determines what happens to your money when the exchange rate moves. A New Zealand dollar priced global share fund moves with the United States dollar, the euro and the yen, in proportion to what it holds, exactly as though you had bought those shares directly. The only thing that changes this is hedging, which converts foreign exposure back to New Zealand dollars at a cost, and which most people either forget about entirely or assume applies when it does not. This page adds it all up. Enter what each fund holds by currency, taken from the geographic breakdown on its factsheet, along with how much of it is hedged, and it reports your gross exposure, how much the hedging removes, and the net position across the whole portfolio. It then tests a range of exchange rate movements against that net figure, using the reciprocal multiplier rather than a simple subtraction, because a ten percent rise in the New Zealand dollar does not cost you ten percent. Include KiwiSaver, which is usually the largest holding and the largest source of exposure nobody has counted.
| Currency | From A | From B | From C | Gross | After hedging | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | $18,600.00 | $5,250.00 | $0.00 | $23,850.00 | $21,225.00 | 42.45% |
| Other foreign | $4,800.00 | $2,100.00 | $0.00 | $6,900.00 | $5,850.00 | 11.70% |
| Euro | $3,600.00 | $1,200.00 | $0.00 | $4,800.00 | $4,200.00 | 8.40% |
| Japanese yen | $1,800.00 | $450.00 | $0.00 | $2,250.00 | $2,025.00 | 4.05% |
| New Zealand dollar | $1,200.00 | $6,000.00 | $5,000.00 | $12,200.00 | $16,700.00 | 33.40% |
| Total | $30,000.00 | $15,000.00 | $5,000.00 | $50,000.00 | $50,000.00 | 100.00% |
| Foreign currency | $37,800.00 | $33,300.00 | 66.60% |
Hedging moves money from the foreign rows into the New Zealand dollar row. It does not change what the fund owns, only what happens to you when the rate moves.
| If the NZ dollar | Foreign assets multiply by | Change in value | Effect on the portfolio | Portfolio becomes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falls 15% | 1.176471 | $5,876.47 | 11.75% | $55,876.47 |
| Falls 10% | 1.111111 | $3,700.00 | 7.40% | $53,700.00 |
| Falls 5% | 1.052632 | $1,752.63 | 3.51% | $51,752.63 |
| Rises 5% | 0.952381 | -$1,585.71 | -3.17% | $48,414.29 |
| Rises 10% | 0.909091 | -$3,027.27 | -6.05% | $46,972.73 |
| Rises 15% | 0.869565 | -$4,343.48 | -8.69% | $45,656.52 |
The multiplier is a division, not a subtraction, so a 10% rise costs 9.09% rather than 10%. The gains are slightly larger than the equivalent losses for the same reason.
| Hedging | Foreign exposure | As a share | Swing if NZD rises 10% | Swing if NZD falls 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None at all | $37,800.00 | 75.60% | -$3,436.36 | $4,200.00 |
| As you have it | $33,300.00 | 66.60% | -$3,027.27 | $3,700.00 |
| Fully hedged | $0.00 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Full hedging removes the swing in both directions, and costs something every year whether the currency moves or not. That cost sits inside the fund's fee rather than being charged to you separately.
The most intuitive belief about this is the wrong one. A fund priced in New Zealand dollars that holds United States shares gives you United States dollar exposure, because what it owns is denominated in United States dollars.
The unit price is just the label on the wrapper. When the exchange rate moves, the value of the shares inside moves with it and the unit price follows.
The only thing that severs that link is hedging, and hedging has to be done deliberately by the fund and paid for.
An unhedged global fund at $30,000.00, a half-hedged KiwiSaver balanced fund at $15,000.00, and a New Zealand share fund at $5,000.00.
Gross foreign exposure is $37,800.00, or 75.60%. The KiwiSaver hedging converts $4,500.00 of that back to New Zealand dollars.
Net foreign exposure is $33,300.00, or 66.60%, of which the United States dollar alone is $21,225.00, or 42.45%.
Someone holding a dedicated New Zealand fund might reasonably feel domestically weighted. Two thirds of their money moves with foreign exchange rates.
Converting foreign value back to New Zealand dollars is a division, which makes the arithmetic asymmetric.
If the New Zealand dollar rises 10%, foreign assets are multiplied by 1 divided by 1.10, which is 0.909091. That is a fall of 9.09%, not 10%.
If it falls 10%, they are multiplied by 1 divided by 0.90, which is 1.111111, a rise of 11.11%.
On the worked example that is -$3,027.27 against +$3,700.00 for equal-sized moves in opposite directions. The asymmetry is real and works in your favour. Our currency hedged vs unhedged calculator takes this further, including what the currency contributed to a given year's return.
A 10% currency move costs or gains around 6 to 7 percent of this portfolio with the underlying markets completely flat.
That is comparable to a normal year's expected return from the shares themselves, arriving from a source most holders have never quantified and would not see on any statement.
Currencies move that far regularly. It is not a tail scenario, it is an ordinary couple of years.
For a New Zealander there is a reasonable argument that it helps. The New Zealand dollar tends to weaken when global conditions deteriorate, which lifts the New Zealand dollar value of foreign assets at exactly the moment domestic conditions are worst and your job feels least secure.
That is a genuine offset and it is one reason many long-term investors leave international shares unhedged.
The case for hedging is stronger for bonds, where a currency swing can be several times the yield, and for money needed at a known date, where year to year variation matters more than the long run.
What this page argues is only that the figure should be known. A 66.60% position in foreign currency is a large position to hold by accident.
It is usually the largest holding, it usually carries substantial international assets, and its hedging policy sits in documents most members have never opened.
A balanced fund can be half international with only part of that hedged, which is exactly the case modelled above. Leaving KiwiSaver out of this calculation understates the answer more than any other omission you could make.
Our fund overlap calculator shows the same portfolio by market and our home bias calculator deals with the opposite problem, which is holding too much of New Zealand rather than too little.
If you've found a bug, or would like to contact us, or learn more about James Graham and Calculate.co.nz.
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